Chicken Little Pundits - Paralysis Analysis

Ed: Wall Street analysts have too much idle time - not enough analysis. Despite the massive effort and pretty charts, the analysis shows the slow market recovery after a drastic drop. 

Duh!

This is a classic, single variate, cross-sectional analysis of 3 data points in time - thin on analysis, biased on the selection of time series, and meaningless. Using this trivial thinking, you can select hundreds of data points to prove fast recovery after a market drop. 

The analysts have a 1 in 3 chances of being correct. Markets go up, down, or stay the same. Their chance of being correct of being correct is the same as flipping a three-sided coin.

View	How Oil Prices Impact the Cost of Bottled Water

View	Watch the Grocery Prices - Economic Recovery in Place?

Oil prices have climbed and dropped dramatically. This is a single data point with no comparables in history. In 1972, the MIT, Wharton, Chase, UCLA, and Lionel D. Edie macroeconomic models could not predict the impact of increased oil prices. 

In 2008, we can't predict current events using irrelevant comparables. 

Nastiest Bear Markets In History: How Does Ours Compare?

Henry Blodget | Nov 30, 08 9:42 PM

Doug Short (via Barry Ritholtz) offers this interesting chart of four nasty 20th Century bear markets: 1929, Nikkei, NASDAQ, and our current S&P 500. As the chart shows, we're right on track for... well, we're right on track for any of the scenarios, as well as for a recovery.  But regardless of how this one ends, we're off to a historically horrific start.

And here's another good one, showing a shorter time span. Note that we have just caught up with the pace of the 1929 crash. (It was quicker early on, but the last three months have made up for lost ground).

What do you think?

Ed: Confusing picture of Black Friday. Stock market drops on Monday, but 1929 chicken-little predictions have been plucked, roasted, and eaten.

Holiday Online Retail Traffic: Walmart And Amazon Duked It Out

According to Hitwise, U.S. visit numbers across all tracked retail categories declined for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday 2008, with the exception of online-only shopping websites. Among the top 500 Retail sites, Walmart was the top visited on Thanksgiving Day, but Amazon.com took over as top visited Retail site on Black Friday.

Overall, the numbers showed an expected but sharp decline: the percentage of U.S. visits was down 11% on Thanksgiving Day in 2008 compared to last year, and U.S. traffic on Black Friday was down 5%. But online-only (not brick-and-mortar) stores, of which there are 100 in the list of 500 top retail websites, had a pretty good run: the percentage of U.S visits to those shot up 11% on Thanksgiving Day, and went up 10% on Black Friday compared to 2007.

Still according to the Hitwise report, the top visited retail website on Thanksgiving Day was Walmart.com, receiving 13.72% of U.S. visits, while Amazon.com was the second most visited with 9.56% of visits. BestBuy.com came in third with 6.05%.

Amazon.com took over the lead on Black Friday, receiving 11.06% of U.S. visits among the top 500 retail websites. Walmart.com was the second most visited with 9.88% of visits followed by Target.com with 4.62%.

Apple Black Friday Mac Sales 'Better Than Expected': Analyst (AAPL)

Dan Frommer | December 1, 2008 10:20 AM

Apple (AAPL) didn't offer deep discounts on its Macs or iPods during last week's "Black Friday" sale, and it didn't offer any discount on iPhones. But Mac sales were "better than expected," Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says in a note today, and iPhone sales were "as expected."

Munster's team spent 10 hours counting Mac and iPhone sales in five Apple stores last Friday. They calculated:

• Mac sales averaged 13 per hour, up from 2 per hour in early November.
• iPhone sales averaged 3.4 per hour, up from 1.3 per hour in early November. Friday's iPhone sales numbers are "likely understated" because they missed some iPhone gift card sales.

Black Friday Weekend

CTV.ca

Black Friday sales chalk up 3% gain from last year MarketWatch - 36 minutes ago By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Strong discounts brought US consumers to the stores on "Black Friday" -- the traditional first day ... US ‘Black Friday’ Sales Rise 3%, ShopperTrak Says (Update2) Bloomberg Early data shows strong Black Friday The Associated Press US Black Friday retail sales rise 3%, says ShopperTrak RTT News Consumer Affairs - Xinhua

CTV.ca

Shop therapy! Black Friday sales up 3% New York Daily News, NY - 8 hours ago BY ELIZABETH LAZAROWITZ, JOE GOULD AND TINA MOORE New Yorkers hit the stores for a second round of bargain-hunting Saturday as analysts said deep Black ... Rain doesn't deter Black Friday shoppers in Dallas-Fort Worth Dallas Morning News Black Friday sales brighten southern New Jersey stores' hopes for ... Press of Atlantic City Local Black Friday sales appear robust Daily Comet South Bend Tribune (subscription) - Chattanooga Times Free Press all 990 news articles »

ABC News

Missed Black Friday? Cyber Monday coming Detroit Free Press, United States - 12 hours ago BY KELLY KOZLOWSKI • FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER • November 29, 2008 Black Friday came and went, and with it, the sales, coupons and doorbuster deals. ... Retailers Get A Boost On Black Friday KFOXtv.com Online retailers look to catch Friday's leftover shoppers MyWestTexas.com Sleep in Friday? Try Net on Monday St. Cloud Times I4U - al.com

Hopes for Bargains Dim on 'Black Friday' Washington Post, United States - 9 hours ago By Jenna Johnson This year's economic crisis made the hunt for Black Friday bargains even more frenetic for many Southern Maryland residents. ... Shoppers turn out on Black Friday Baltimore Sun CBS4.COM Is Your Source For Black Friday Shopping CBS 4

Sydney Morning Herald

After Black Friday death, shoppers back at Wal-Mart Newsday, NY - 22 hours ago ... there were no outward signs Saturday at the Valley Stream Wal-Mart of the chaos that turned this year's Black Friday into a day of death and mayhem. ... Video: Charges Possible in Black Friday Wal-Mart Death AssociatedPress Black Friday turns tragic for Wal-Mart CNNMoney.com Wal-Mart worker trampled to death by frenzied Black Friday shoppers Seattle Times Delaware County Daily Times - MarketWatch

PriceGrabber.com(R) Releases 2008 Black Friday Online Shopping ... MarketWatch - 17 hours ago "Prior to the Black Friday weekend, 71 percent of shoppers intended to spend less money this holiday season compared to last year and 66 percent planned to ... Low Prices Draw SoCal Shoppers NBC Los Angeles all 17 news articles »

Sify

Did you shop on Black Friday? Redlands Daily Facts, CA - 6 hours ago By KEVIN TRUDGEON But while the tradition of Black Friday centers around holiday shopping and bargain hunting, there have been incidents of violence. ... Video: Money Minute: Black Friday, OPEC, Yahoo AssociatedPress Black Friday takes a hit from the economy Boston Globe Rookie, veteran shoppers hit stores on Black Friday Newsday Atlanta Journal Constitution - CNNMoney.com

ABC News

Surprised? Black Friday sales up in 2008 NECN, MA - 15 hours ago Preliminary figures show consumers spent 3-percent more on Black Friday than last year, to the tune of $10.6 billion dollars. But now that Black Friday is ... Holiday shoppers show caution on this year's Black Friday Arizona Republic Shoppers Search For Deals During Black Friday MyNC.com Borderland shoppers out in full-force for 'Black Friday' KVIA KCCI.com - KBMT ABC 12

Reuters

Black Friday Web sales jump Reuters - 16 hours ago CHICAGO (Reuters) - Online sales jumped on Black Friday as consumers searched for electronics such as the Wii video game console and Apple's iPhone and iPod ... eBay Companies See Black Friday Shoppers Clicking for Great Deals WELT ONLINE Black Friday online sales - Cyber Monday comes early TECH.BLORGE.com   EBAY - AMZN - AAPL

Bailout, Black Friday lift Wall Street for the week Newsday, NY - 7 hours ago Investors are examining the prospects for the holiday shopping period, which began in earnestFriday. Wall Street expects retailers will suffer as consumers ...