Verizon Rep: It's just like an iPhone ;-)

While visiting a Verizon store, I overheard a customer conversation.

Do you have the iPhone?

Is Verizon listening to their customers?

Verizon's Challenge

Verizon is the largest wireless network in the United States. (FYI - very small when compared to China Mobile and China Unicom as an aside.) Despite the massive advertising pissing-battle on TV, their 3G network is marginally faster than AT&T's network, equal when using the Wi-Fi option, and behind when shared with telephony services.

Verizon rejected Apple and enterprise politics block adding the iPhone to their product mix. AT&T has already announced that they will add Android phones, opening the door for Apple to choose more wireless partners in the USA.

Verizon offers Blackberry for business users, Palm Pre/Pixi for female customers, and the Android Droid series for tech-savvy customers. Thus, they concluded that they don't need the iPhone.

Wrong.

Troubles on the Android Platform

Verizon has pushed millions of Android phones to customers - made by Motorola, HTC, and Samsung. (ed: still a small fraction of iPhone, iPad, iPod shipments) Unfortunately, of the six phones tested:

• 2 failed to boot
• 1 crunched its content to less than 320px resolution
• 1 unit's touch typing failed to recognize any letter correctly
• 1 worked great, but had a few small quirks
• 1 worked perfectly
• All had Android 1.5 or better
  

As an app developer, I've pointed out the weakness of the Android strategy. Who is to blame for this inconsistent user experience? Google, Motorola, HTC, Samsung, Verizon, Taiwan, or the developer? Let the fingerpointing start.

Although the press has accused Apple of taking tough stances with wireless partners, developers, and Taiwan manufacturers, it's clear that Apple takes the user experience seriously and takes ownership of the issue.

On the Android platform, who takes ownership?

What the Verizon Customer Wants

Let's get back to the customer.

• She wants to stay with Verizon
• Her kids have asked for the iPhone
• She is told that the Droid is just like an iPhone. Is it? Which one?
  
• She asked about iTunes
• She is told that Verizon already has iTunes -- using MP3
• She asked when Verizon will offer the iPhone
• The rep lied, soon ;-)

Should Verizon make their reps look like a bunch of out-right fibbers? Politics aside, isn't it time for Verizon to listen to their customers?

Has the Wall Between Church and State Crumbled for Publishing?

Lots of buzzwords about new media. As I read the meaningless words, the bigger issue of publishing credibility raised its ugly head. Traditionally, editors and circulation work independently from ad sales. Has the wall between church and state crumbled?

There is no intent to accuse anyone of foul play, but here are the observations.

• Did Mashable and Techcrunch gain Twitter recommendation - in return for favorable blog mentions? Like tech events sponsored by leading publications, the partnership can be implicit or explicit. Which is the case here? Winer is whining below.
• Facebook is adding recommendated friends. Is this an effort to reduce the negative publicity for Facebook? Negative press could lead to the removal of a respected blog from Facebook's celebrity list.
• Some twitters have received money for their tweets. In the past, bloggers have received money and free products in return for favorable mentions. Arrington has accused Winer of receiving funds. Is this a problem?
• With thousands of whales at Twitter (i.e. users with over 10,000 followers), are they editors, promotional consultants, or just friends of friends? As an aggregate group, do they replace new media?
• PR and social media consultants now have 70,000 personal followers at Twitter. Isn't that equivalent to the circulation of legacy magazines? Do these numbers help or hurt the credibility of these media consultants? After all, if they have sooo many loyal followers, why do they need credible publications like Techcrunch? Can't they produce results for their clients using their own followers? 

I remember the policies at IDG where editors could not receive a casual, free lunch, the good old days. Today, we can't separate the press agents, media editors, and advertising promoters among the millions of operators. 

Just asking questions. Has new media gotten ugly?

Does Mashable have credibility re Twitter? 

from Scripting News

This article by Pete Cashmore at Mashable is now the top item on TechMeme.

Cashmore is one of very small number of users who Twitter includes in their Suggested Users List, which has resulted in huge growth in their number of followers. 

Three months ago, he had 28,621 followers. Today he has 417,347. In the same timeframe my Twitter feed grew from 16,062 to 21,108, which represents something of a baseline for users not gifted by Twitter with placement on the SUL. (Source:twittercounter.com.)

Did Twitter favor him with this gift because they like what he says about them, or to encourage him to be more favorable in his writing? Or some other reason? Did he pay for this placement? (Note that would, imho, be the ethical thing to do, and the same deal should be offered to everyone.)

Would Cashmore withhold or temper criticism of Twitter because he fears they may cut him off?

Would a reader question his impartiality? (This reader does. I can't see how he can help but be influenced.)

Does this kind of favoritism hurt Twitter as a medium for journalism?...

Can the Statusphere Save Journalism?

by Brian Solis on April 11, 2009

Recently, I enjoyed a refreshing and invigorating dinner with Walt Mossberg. While we casually discussed our most current endeavors and experiences, the discussion shifted to deep conversation about the future of journalism in the era of socialized media with one simple question, “are newspapers worth saving?”

Walt thought for no more than two seconds and assertively replied, “It’s the wrong question to ask. The real question we should ask is if whether or not we can save good journalism.” He continued, “Think about it. Of the hundreds, thousands, of newspapers around the country, there are really only a few that matter. Good journalism and journalists, on the other hand, are worth saving.” ...

As Walt said, “there are truly only a handful of media properties in print worth saving, the rest is comprised of great journalists and recycled national news.”

So what of those brilliantly articulate, passionate, and scintillating writers whom we identify, admire and connect with in each article they share?

It’s not unlike the renaissance currently underway in the music industry. Artists are discovering that they have a Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel to reach fans and cultivate relationships. Those in touch with technology and the cultures of online societies can bypass traditional music production and distribution altogether.

I guess I’m saying that at a time when traditional routes to journalism careers are being questioned, exceptional journalists can create their own destiny. Their future is in their notepads (or laptops), ready to escape from paper to online and the real world.

The connection with readers, once established, multiplied, and fed, is seductive and unquenchable....

The Statusphere is the new ecosystem for sharing, discovering, and publishing updates and micro-sized content that reverberates throughout social networks and syndicated profiles, resulting in a formidable network effect of activity. It is the digital curation of relevant content that binds us contextually to the statusphere, where we can connect directly to existing contacts, reach new people, and also forge new acquaintances through the friends of friends effect (FoFs) in the process.

Twitter, Facebook News Feeds, FriendFeed and other micro communities that define the Statusphere, are driving action and determining the direction and course of individual attention. It is inducing a more participatory, engaging, and enlightened community of media-literate information socialites.

I’d also argue that the Statusphere will ultimately replace bookmarks and RSS feeds as a traffic driver for the masses, as we increasingly rely on friends and peers to serve as our social seismograph for relevant and contextual data....

Fast Change, Slow Change - Reflections from Web 2.0 Expo #w2e

Spent the day at the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco's Moscone Center, the hot bed of web 2.0 development. The web has been morphing at an hourly pace, yet the show evoked images of how slowly some things change. Here's the story.

The Drive to San Francisco

It's a straight shot up Highway 280 to San Francisco some 50 miles north of Silicon Valley. A sunny day typical of Northern California - not too hot or too cold. Avoiding the rush hour, the drive was fast, relaxing. Winding through the mountain scene on an 8-lane highway until one enters the unique landscape of Daly City in San Francisco - this was a pleasant change from the virtual worlds of social media and software development.

How Quickly the Web Changes

Last night, Twitter released a new version that highlights their entrance into 'search' and stretches beyond their core with social networks and 140-character messaging. Bugs were many, but corrected in real-time in less than 10 minutes. Facebook revamped their website - to weather the torrent of user complaints from millions. Microsoft is trying with new versions of Internet Explorer and Windows Mobile. Seemingly everyday, hundreds of significant developments testify to the pace of change in the virtual world. 

Facebook and Twitter have changed quickly and stormed to center stage - dominating mindshare over companies such as Google and Yahoo; and pushing Microsoft and the newspaper publishers into dinosaur history. Tens of millions of people shift with each change online.

We released the tEarn Media series of 20 supersites in early March. Traffic has grown to 100,000 unique users in the FIRST month; and the pace in early April is already at the 180,000 rate. Each day sets new records.

Rather than user sign-ups, comments, and ratings that create friction for users - we cooperate with the open network at Twitter. In two weeks, over 16,000 people follow one of our virtual hosts. By the end of this post, we will have over 17,000 followers. That's a faster path to popularity than a self-promoted real-life celebrity on Twitter. 

Everyday, thousands return to our supersites.

The change is fast. Daily. The adoption is fast. Shockingly hyper.

The #w2e

#w2e is the twitter hashtag convention for the Web 2.0 Expo. Our use of this hashtag illustrates the rate of change and adoption on the Internet and for users at the expo. 

However...

At Moscone, here are my first flashes.

• Sony's Meteron, which is across the street, is closed - another casualty in battles with Apple and Nintendo. 
• The show is sponsored by two respected publishers, Techweb and O'Reilly books. Despite covering technology, have they fallen behind the times?
• New magazines cover the topics of web hosting and video marketing. I perused the glossies, noted some of the usual advertisers. I would have returned the magazines to save trees, but the slightly soiled, over-printed magazines would be tossed anyway. Pretty. Sad. Why destroy the earth?
• The conference used a bank of laptops connected to printers for badges. I was greeted with a 'friendly' request for a confirmation code. What code? 
• I found the option to log in by id. I remembered, but typed the wrong password since the system demanded a certain type of password. But the error message simply said I was not enrolled. I resolved my own problem. Nevertheless, the system was not web 2.0 and fails every measure of user interface design. The organizers produce beautiful magazines and books, but fail to match their editorial advice when it comes to online execution.
• For an advanced show where everyone carries a cell phone, a system where the guest sends a/an #imhere SMS to @w2e - would have been cool and expected.

Covering the Events

There are some 10 simultaneous conferences with seating for about 5,000; and estimated 2,000 listeners. Were they listening?

• The security topic had 12 people in a hall with some 800 seats. 
• Everyone had an iPhone, Apple MacBook Air, netbook, RIM, or some other of the latest fashionable device. Oh! Don't forget the leather jackets. The wirelesss devices was the story. 
• Twitter was the most popular topic, but as the speakers talked about twitter, I saw a range of uses from registering for twitter to tweeting the talk. 
• Users snapped iPhone photos and uploaded to their web page. Some had their FrontPage app running.
• The most popular use was email or twitter checking, Google reader, taking notes in Word??, or monitoring web dashboards with complex panels. Perhaps the attendees were following the same talk over tweeter from other attendees!!
• In hindsight, the most common screen was the Wi-Fi panel as users struggled to get a connection. Maybe that's why so many were using Word or some notepad.
• The speakers droned on with buzzwords. Do they have 15,000 followers? Can they influence these followers to click their links? Techcrunch and Fred Wilson have admitted that they cannot convert followers to visitors. Have these speakers experienced a different result? Or is it just talk with no first-hand success?

So, who was listening? I don't know. You tell me.

Like the users on the web, people have become interactive - preferring to multi-task - rather than just listen to the speakers. They hear, but if they listened, they would have walked out like I did.

The Booths

A quick round of the an estimated 200 booths totaled 4 reps talking to 4 passer-byes. I would guess 2,000 people - or 5,000 for the expo this day.

Let's get back to the theme of how slowly some events change. 

Booth workers practice their elevator pitch. Did they qualify the listener? I heard some San Francisco tourists glaze over a pitch on outsourced distribution. Keynote (I'm a small investor) hired a new worker to pitch their enterprise product at a consumer show. The German government sent a delegation to Silicon Valley. BTW, IBM's morning session drew 80 in a room with 400 seats. An IBM worker admitted that their schedule of shows for the year can draw zero serious customers. Why bother?

I suspect the main draw of the show was paid jobs, San Francisco, the parties, and free lunches - in that order.

Comparing Twitter to w2e

5,000 people a day meander through the booths and catch glimpses of brands, names, and buzzwords. How's that different from our 16,000 daily followers at Twitter? 

Not much. 

Both are unqualified traffic. The chances of anyone seeing your brand or message is a small statistical percentage. The close is equally difficult.

What's different is the productivity. Do compare spending $10,000 or more to return similar results with the labor costs to use Twitter. 

For both, the ROI depends on the return and not just a smaller investment. Booth workers, like newspaper publishers, have not solved the problem of returns to cover high costs. 

Web workers are solving the return problem in creative ways. The investment is less online. Thus, there is more time for online publishers to solve the problem. 

When this article is published, I estimate that over 500 people will see and perhaps read this post. With a few diggs and retweets, perhaps 2 to 3 thousands will get a chuggle. What it generates in revenues is a big problem still. But the impact of the 500 pitches is higher than 5 days struggling at w2e or even being a speaker at the event.

Conclusion

Will trade shows follow newspapers? Probably not, some trade shows do very well.

Does online compete with trade shows? You bet. 

Still, one can't ignore the irony that w3e represents the community that seeks change, but moves like dinosaurs. Please note that this piece intends no disrespect for the editorial quality of the w3e hosts. 

And may the parties continue...

Learning the AI behind the New Facebook, LinkedIn Needs to Adapt

A minor riot has erupted at Gawker, Techcrunch, and at Facebook over recent changes. Most incorrectly compare Facebook to Twitter. 

Let's bring clarity to this simple, but far reaching change by Facebook.

Background Information

I wrote CAT (i.e. contacts, activities, and time) in 1984. I studied AI (i.e. artificial intelligence) at MIT in the late '60s. I've written several posts about Facebook and LinkedIn that have been read by tens of thousands. Thus, I may be a little more qualified than the average commenter, but probably not much ;-)

Facebook overcame huge technology complexities and scalability issues to deliver a new Facebook. With my personal background, I prepped my use of Facebook for this expected change. 

The results have been personally magical.

Facebook friends and Twitter followers

Whether friends at Facebook or LinkedIn; or followers at Twitter, the average list has creeped, leaped from dozens to hundreds to thousands - to unmanageable noise. We may have started with friends, but the list quickly grew to include acquaintences, suspects, fans, and absolute strangers. 

Twitter aims to serve networks of strangers. Compare to email spam lists, it's easy to build and maintain the list. Users can opt-out by un-following, without contacting the sender. 

That's the big Twitter story.

As I write, my Twitter list has grown from a few hundred to over 3,000 - in 3 days. By the end of this week, I'll have 10,000 - just like hundreds of other Twitter users - but perhaps a little more accelerated using robotic help. That's not the Facebook or LinkedIn mission.

Facebook and LinkedIn constrains connecting. Users have to confirm the relationship via knowing the other party's email. However, for many users, their list has creeped into thousands of friends anyway. 

As Facebook opens the flood-gates on the number of friends, some fear that Facebook will become another Twitter. (or worse, Myspace)

How do we prevent the Facebook feed  from becoming a torrent of noise like Twitter? 

Read on.

AI Basics Apply

In AI, we use programs to simulate the behavior of the human mind - using very limited programming methods. How does the mind store information?

Have you ever said, "top right drawer" in response to a question? The mind seems to map thousands of things into geographic cabinets.

How do we recall people? Have you ever met an old friend in a different setting and struggled to recall the name? A soccer coach at the theater in San Francisco or a work acquaintence dressed in shorts at a park?

The mind groups friends, events, and phases in your life. When reminded of some piece, whole scenes, conversations, and events can replay in your mind. When presented with a Doo Wop song, dozens of others come to mind. Without the stimulus, that section of the human storage stays dormant, forgotten.

What Does This Have to Do with the Facebook Change?

I meander. The answer is simple.

• Go to the Friends section of Facebook and create folders that Facebook calls lists. 
  
• Start with simple lists like family, friends, work, church, sex partners, whatever...
• The folders can also be chronological by schools, towns, or places where you have lived.
• Start putting friends into lists. A friend can be parts of multiple lists. The list does not have to be exhaustive - meaning absolutely finding everyone among the thousands. Conversely, not every friend needs to belong to a list. 
• I have a list called Misc for people who asked to connect who I didn't know. That list is half of my Facebook contacts. As I've gotten to know people, I move them to other folders.
• I have a dozen lists. You can have more or less.

Once you've put a dozen names in each list, take another look at the new Facebook feed. Click on the lists on the left. Facebook calls them filters. It's really messages by friend groups.

Be pleasantly surprised by the result. 

Each list brings new meaning to the streams. Work tells you what associates are thinking. AYSO brings up the soccer chatter among friends. And the Boston brings back the memories from 30 years ago at MIT. The mind stimulates and adjusts as you scan the chatter in each list.

Conclusion

Try it. Tell me what you see in your streams.

And LinkeIn, it's time you stepped up and solve the technical challenge to do the same.

PS: Writers at Techcrunch, ReadWriteWeb, VentureBeat, AlleyInsider, etc - feel free to link and acknowledge the source, this time. Thanks.

Comments at Blogs, Facebook, Twitter, Connect, Disqus, ... What's New?

Swipe through the marquee to see what happens!

A blog or website has so many options for inviting user participation. Options crowd pages, confusing visitors with the many options. What works? What is the future?

Comment Update

Traditionally, a page invites user comments. 99.99% of pages gain no comments. Too many comments are simply spam. When the 0.01% does get comments, there are so many that few reads them. 

It's broken. (Ed: the notes for this blog is officially off!)

Many options allow sites to capture textual interaction. Here are the choices:

• Forums bury comments inside databases - often inaccesible to robots. Thousands of forums still have private conversations among a few members. The majority provides flypaper to unsuspecting search engines - providing antiquated knowledge. Craiglist is an example.
• Groups send comments to each other via email digests. There is so much group email that the content is often ignored.
• Bookmarking - like Digg, Stumbeupon, Reddit, Yahoo Buzz, and dozens of others, share comments to the communities at those sites. Essentially, these are review sites for articles. If an article gains fans, it may surface as a top article to be read by millions. Note that fame is fleeting - as a few of our articles have achieved momentary fame.
• Social Networks - like Facebook, Myspace, and LinkedIn, allow users to show status, and their friends comment on the status. Blogs and websites can send page feeds into social networks, thus allowing friends to read and comment on articles inside the social network. Comments become part of the social network.
• Open Social and Facebook Connect widgets allow visitors to comment at a website and feed the comment to their friends inside the social network. This requires the visitor to sign in, grant permission, and submit - a confusing process.
• Google FriendConnect provides a comment widget. Unfortunately, Google does not have a significant social network for sharing. Thus, each sitebuilds its own - a time intensive process. Disqus serves a similar function.
• Twitter offers innovative sharing with their social network. Scobleizer talks about one method that changes commeting below:

Doing comments first on Twitter with Twickie

OK, so, what is the tool I was using earlier in the evening to get lots of responses from my Twitter followers and copy and paste them into my blog? Chris Pirillo’s Twickie.

How does it work?

I ask a question on Twitter.

People respond...

Thank you for participating. I’ll try other questions soon, I don’t want to overdo it.

Essentially, the problem is the same - either too little like nothing, or too much creating pure noise. Piles of comments at Craigslist, Digg, Stumbleupon, Twitter, and the like essentially serve no-one.

Working Models

What's working? Here are a few ideas.

• Shared comments wins. Closed comments, specific to a site, only works for the top sites. New websites need to look for other models.
• Facebook authenticates users and friends. Thus, the feed is primarily chit-chat among real friends. As many users have expanded their circle to include apps, fans, and essentially strangers, the personal feeds become noisy. Facebook responded by isolating robotic and app feeds to separate tabs. More options would help maintain the conversation stream among friends.
• In contrast, Myspace has uncontrolled noise among strangers. Their original model was emerging musicians and their fans. It has expanded to prostitutes, emerging starlets, and other promoters - creating a rapid stream of spam for every user. Not surprisingly, Facebook has advanced beyond Myspace - while is latter is stuck in neutral.
• Each page at Techcrunch, the leading tech blog, has become an open conversation pit. In the early morning, people fight to react with the first comment, thus gaining the highest visibility. Recently, they added Facebook Connect so that visitors can both post and share their comments with their Facebook friends. 
• Open conversations are hard to manage, breaking out with profanity and shouting. Overall, it's still a great place. Lesser sites like ReadWriteWeb, Venture Beat, and GigaOM have less conversation. Cnet's closed, restricted commenting has few participants.
• Gawker, a leading social news blog, has an interesting approach to comments. Members are monitored, evaluated - before given permission to post in public. It's a wonderful way to assure that visitors are actually reading the content before posting replies - informed comments. Thus, the comments crowdsource true value for each article. 
• Twitter's 140 character microblog has gained incredible growth. The open commenting allows anyone globally to share with anyone else. Open has helped Twitter grow, but the noise level per participant has grown as well. Millions tweet. Who's listening?

Toward a New Model for Comments

A new model shares open comments, exploits the popularity of Twitter, and surfaces the common discussions among Twitter users on a common topic. Here is the Twitter stream on twitter, itself.

Click the like, tag, dislike buttons; and join the conversation. Note the realtime results when you refresh the Twitter stream to see your photo on this page. Try it.

Whether new TV shows, old shows, emerging starlets/jocks, or the President of Albania, you're be surprised at the global, relevant conversations that surfaces. 

Sites that have deployed this new commenting/guided search/informed chat model include:

• TV channels http://tv.tEarn.com/ - view over 200 channels of TV shows and discuss among instant friends
  
• my Other bf is ... http://bf.tEarn.com/ - for women to discuss men
• my Other gf is ... http://gf.tEarn.com/ - for men to discuss women
• S channels http://s.tEarn.com/ - 300 channels by basketball teams - getting ready for the NCAA March Madness
• Software Platforms http://sw.tEarn.com/ - over 140 channels by platform

Many more sites are coming...

Conclusion

Commenting has changed from closed posts to open, shared conversations. Tweet your reply, now.

Web 3.0 and beyond: the next 20 years of the internet

Ed: More hype from the semantic web crowd. The basis is AI (artifical intelligence) from the early '60s. There has been little progress simulating human intelligence - and no break-throughs to suggest that this 50 year old problem has a solution. The innovation MAY come from bio-genetics, but certainly NOT from web statisticians.

Web 3.0 is here today, not 10 or 20 years from now. These are the drivers:

• Open databases - like Google, Yahoo, Twitter, Obama, Crunchbase, and NYTimes; not closed like Facebook, Myspace, Gawker, and traditional media, business, and politics.
• Realtime integration - see http://gf.tearn.com/ or http://bf.tearn.com/ for a few examples that crowdsources photo/video search with Twitter chat by topic. This enables guided search and informed chats - what I call the right-brain search.
• Cyborgtic networks - Problem solving continues to depend on humans, but aided by the smarts of robotic software. Small groups of 5,000 inactive friends in social networks can't solve specific problems. The global network of billions CAN.

Like web 1.0, the web 2.0 bubble is a financial crisis. The web continues to grow. In fact, the data suggests increased growth as more laid-off workers turn to the Internet. 

Web 3.0 business model will depend more on innovative services, commerce - and less on advertising. Purchasing of virtual/digital goods has been growing on social networks, games, and the iPhone. Web services will grow as businesses adapt their antiquated web 1.0 websites to web 2.0 and web 3.0 features. A new wave of advertising demand will follow. Let's end the 'chicken-little' comments from pundits who might suggest otherwise.

Read on. Have any comments?

Web 3.0 and beyond: the next 20 years of the internet

Silicon Valley has painted a picture of the web in 2030, and it is very powerful – and very smart – indeed

Jonathan Richards

In the heart of Silicon Valley, at what is referred to, somewhat romantically, as the 'web's edge', something is stirring.

A new type of internet is being imagined, far more powerful that the one which lets you link up with your friends or watch a video uploaded by a stranger.

Facebook, YouTube and the other social networks and blogs that fall within the scope of 'Web 2.0' may be beginning to penetrate the mainstream, but to those whose Cassandra-like vision lets them see the web in 2020 and beyond, they are but a pixel in a much larger picture.

In a little over a decade, according to the engineers building the internet of tomorrow, the web will be able to connect every aspect of our digital lives - be it a website, an e-mail, or a file on our PC - to every other aspect. It will know, for instance, when you are typing an e-mail, what the subject of the e-mail is, and be able to suggest websites and books as well as documents, photos and videos you have saved that may be relevant to that topic.

It will be achieve this by virtue of the inherent 'intelligence' in the underlying architecture of the internet, they say. In other words, the web is becoming smart.

Nova Spivack is an evangelist of the next phase of the web's development - what Silicon Valley, with its expansionist zeal, has taken to calling Web 3.0, or 'the semantic web'.

Broadly speaking, Mr Spivack says, Web 3.0 refers to the attempt by technologists to overhaul radically the basic platform of the internet so that it 'understands' the near infinite pieces of information that reside on it and draws connections between them.

If Web 2.0 was all about harnessing the collective intelligence of crowds to give information a value - lots of people liked this story so you might too (Digg.com), people who like Madonna also like this artist (last.fm), lots of people linked to this site so that makes it the most relevant (Google's basic PageRank algorithm) - then Web 3.0 is about giving the internet itself a brain.

For those still a bit lost, Mr Spivack, the founder of Radar Networks, a leading Web 3.0 company, says it's useful to think about the web's development in ten-year cycles.

"We have had the first decade of the web, or Web 1.0," he says, which was about the development of the basic platform of the internet and the ability to make huge amounts of information widely accessible, "and we're nearing the end of the second decade - Web 2.0 - which was all about the user interface" and enabling users to connect with one another.

"Now we're about to enter the third decade - Web 3.0 - which is about making the web much smarter."

Each decade in turn corresponds to an engineering focus on either 'the front end' or 'back end' of the web. Web 1.0 was a back-end decade, focusing on the web's basic platform, its link structure and navigation system. Web 2.0 was front end, with a heavy focus on users and usability, clean-looking sites, and people making connections with one another.

In Web 3.0, the emphasis will revert to the back end, with a renewal of the web's key index - the essential data that is catalogued by search engines like Google. That in turn, Mr Spivack says, will make way for Web 4.0, another 'front-end decade', only with more advanced programs than the likes of Facebook.

A prime example of a Web 3.0 technology is 'natural-language search', which refers to the ability of search engines to answer full questions such as 'Which US Presidents died of disease?'. In some cases, the sites that appear in the results do not reference the original search terms, reflecting the fact that the web knows, for instance, that Reagan was a US President, and that Alzheimer's is a disease.

"Our engine reads every page of the web sentence by sentence and returns results by drawing on a general knowledge of language and what specific concepts in the world mean, and their relationship with one another," said Barney Pell, chief executive of Powerset, which is developing natural-language technology. The firm, based at the prestigious Palo Alto Research Centre, in California, is sometimes talked about as a Google-killer, should its offering - which is not yet widely available - become popular.

It's not just search that will be overhauled in the web of the future, however. One of the recurrent themes in the presentations at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco was 'open platforms', the idea that a website or device, like a mobile phone, should be able to accommodate whichever features or applications its user wants. Think of the iPhone as a folder into which an owner could 'drag and drop' any application - a weather forecaster, an e-mail service - without Apple having to approve such an action.

Some of the world's largest technology companies - Nokia, Apple and MySpace - all made announcements embracing the idea of open platforms, suggesting that the web will become a place where much more mixing and matching of different services will be permitted.

Alongside this will come more mature virtual worlds, or what Silicon Valley's faithful - perhaps to get away from connotations of the computer game - have started referring to as 'immersive environments'.

"The web is going to be a much more immersive, a much more multi-dimensional environment," said John Doerr, one of the founding board members at Google and a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, which invests heavily in the tech sector.

Mr Doerr's presentation touched on a range of areas that would be affected by the web, in particular green technologies and the energy sector, as well as disease therapy, and he gave stark warning to any firm that was not willing to embrace emerging trends. "In any real revolution there are winners and losers. The internet wasn't some kind of 'kum ba ya' thing," he said.

When the time came to pack up the projects and exchange the last business cards, there was a sense - as there was seven years ago - that Silicon Valley was riding a wave of seemingly limitless investor confidence, begging an obvious question.

"Are we officially in a bubble yet?" one of the conference moderators asked, repeatedly.

No one was willing to answer. In the meantime, the vast sums of money to be made and the new services to change people's lives, radically and everywhere, were both things to be celebrated.

Clouds, Open API, Twitter, Facebook, and Realtime Collaboration

The more we learn, the less we know. 

Despite the bad economy, innovation has been moving at accelerated pace. I have been busy innovating and not writing. Here is an announcement of our work and lots of questions.

Photokit Announcement

Regular readers have noticed the many photo channels on this blog. Here is the formal elevator pitch.

Photokit crowdsources photo and video content; automates activities such as slideshows, marquees, games, survey questions, iqtest questions, and others using public content; and shares user comments, likes, and dislikes publically over social networks like Facebook, OpenSocial, and Twitter. 

• The photokit mashup platform uses public, cloud resources - such as Google, Yahoo, Youtube, Live, Blogger, and FlickR - to host pages, photos, videos, comments, and data. This reduces capital investments to essentially zero cost. 
  
• User actions are shared on Twitter timelines, Facebook feeds, and other networks - creating a viral community for publisher controlled activities, contests, and events. Results are near realtime. 
• Users submit content using hashtags. It's online in seconds. Users tag content. Their interaction refreshes the page in seconds.
• Skins, layouts, and filtering control creates sites that complement existing template themes.
  

As one example, 'Media Life' crowdsources user interactions to compile and maintain information about the top 1000 media personalities, globally. We've recently added embedded video viewing and Twitter integration. Users recommend personality adds, upload relevant photos, and/or post to Twitter or Facebook. 

Whether personalities, companies, places, or products - the photokit platform can be applied to thousands of local and niche communities. Take a look at http://media.tearn.com. 

Market Changes

Our new leader has moved quickly to pass a huge economic stimulus package. It's time to spend - or invest - depending on the party line. Whether the plan works or not, time will tell.

Obama has also led with more social media activities - direct to his armies. This has stimulated greater interest in everything social. Not surprisingly, Facebook and Twitter, two social networks, have grown dramatically. Obama leads both with the number of fans at each.

The future is strong for web2.0 - web3.0 - semantic web - what ever we decide to call the clear trend.

Technical Trenches

There has been huge changes in the technical plumbing. Building Photokit has provided an upfront view of these developments.

• Data everywhere. RSS and API feeds abound - data is increasingly open. The NYT has opened their news archive for external use. Yahoo's strategy hinges on shared data silos. Microsoft has released their army to work on the shared web. Obama will push government data transparency. Thousands of data silos have made themselves available. 
• Integration challenge. Of course, each API is a little different. Like political parties, we can't seem to agree on the fine-print. Photokit services to unify the many languages into one consistent interface. 
• Not every API makes sense. Those that solve real problems, like Twitter, has won big. Those that don't understand the full issue, like Yahoo, loses. Ironically, Yahoo authored the mRSS specification in 2004, but failed to support it. Google and others are closer to true deployment - and Google made it simpler.
• Cloud computing is today. The Media Life website sits in the cloud, pulling resources from hundreds of computers over the Internet. We use AJAX, thus tapping the computing power of the user computer, not servers or networks. The UX is rich and simple, including transparent, embedded play of video. 
• Real time. Users expect real time results. Whether transparent photo, video streams; satisfaction from a badge that lets them join the elite community of media personalities; or comments to Twitter that immediately feed back to the site - it's real-time and simple.
• Data cloud. Photokit sources multi-media streams from many sources - like the ticker source on CNBC or sports scores on CNN. We'll also able to store user data in the cloud. Whether comments, scores, or recommendations - information streams to Twitter, Facebook, and back for consumption at the destination site. We call this the data cloud.

Complex web projects - without servers, networks, or databases - is it possible?

Conclusion

What does this mean? The more we learn, the less we know. We're doing dozens of projects - with many more to come. Yet, the consequences of the many technology changes are unclear. 

Like the Obama stimulus plan, we need to have faith that the best efforts lead to the best results.

Your thoughts?

BTW, Check out the new Google FriendConnect at the bottom. Join us.

Have some web ideas? Partner with us.

Facebook, LinkedIn, Myspace, Youtube, Twitter, Friendfeed, Blogs - State of Social Media

I've compared social media to direct mail marketing. Hundreds of social media sites, such as Facebook, LinkedIn, Myspace, Youtube, FlickR, Digg, Twitter, Friendfeed, Blogger, and the endless lists - provide means to connect with a community of suspects, prospects, and fans. 

Are these sites all the same?

Each site has it's own social etiquette, conversation preference, and means to communicate with it's community. This etiquette changes site-by-site and day-by-day. Let's examine the current state for a few major sites.

Facebook

Facebook is the largest global social network. Although Facebook started on university campuses as implied by the name, the reach increasingly covers gen-x, boomers, and seniors as the recent graduates have invited the older generation to participate. 

As a boomer, I've watched as my connections have grown from a dozen to 350 in eight months. College friends, past employees, lost associates, and current friends have discovered each other via Facebook. In a year, I expect over 2,000 personal connections; and millions indirectly through clients and partners. 

Of course, the latter category is not really a list of friends - more like a direct mail list, as discussed. 

• Facebook imports your email list and connects you with your email contacts.
• Facebook offers networks by school, region, or affiliation; groups by any subject; and fan pages for business entities. Networks are automatic based on your profile. Groups and fan pages can be controlled by Facebook member. 
• Communications occur through Facebook email, discussion boards, wall postings, and shared photos, web page, videos, etc. 
• The mini-feed shares personal interactions on your Facebook profile page. These mini feeds include changes to your profile; postings on discussion boards, walls, photos, videos, games; or personal, minute-by-minute status changes.
• The mini-feed of all your friends is aggregated into a news-feed, personalized for your viewing - as a means to keep up with your friends.
• Recently, Facebook enabled comments on newsfeed items. This becomes a quick way to interact with friends. These comments show on their mini-feed, aggregate into the newsfeed of your friends and the friend's friends. Thus, they become public conversations shared with friends on both side.
• Most recently, Facebook has released real-time newsfeeds. This means any new information changes the newsfeed without a click. 

After the recent Presidential debate, I logged into Facebook to see the reactions. Quickly, party advocates have already posted articles and feeds on Facebook. Friends comment on the point of view and a lively discussion / argument follows. Some friends participate realtime. Others join days later. 

Facebook enables conversations among friends, friends of friends, and new friends based on shared interests. 

LinkedIn

LinkedIn is also a social network, but more focused on job search and professional connections. Other than a circle of connected friends, LinkedIn has different social etiquettes for reaching out to make friends.

• LinkedIn imports your email list and connects you.
• Traditionally, the LinkedIn profile looks like a full resume - enabling employers and employees to find each other. 
• The Question/Answer board is essentially a forum that allows members to ask questions and receive answers from any other member. 
• More recently, LinkedIn has re-energized their dormant groups, opened group participation to all members, and added discussion forums and shared news. 
• LinkedIn has a newsfeed that is your home page. It shares profile and friend changes, group discussions and comments, and shared news. It does not allow direct comments as an easy step to join a conversation or discussion. 
• LinkedIn content is available to the robotic web, an important distinction for SEM experts.

Both the QA and group forums have been effective means to reach members with similar interests. Unlike Facebook groups where conversations break down into spam and meaningless chit-chat, the exchange is more relevant. Like comments on Facebook newsfeeds, the conversations do become useful.

My personal list started with a couple of dozen one year ago, and has grown to 350. Unlike Facebook with connections to boomer friends, most of the LinkedIn contacts have been new professional affiliations. I expect this list to also grow into the thousands.

FriendFeed

This is a small, but emerging social network. It started as an infrastructure service to aggregate RSS feeds. Like all social networks, the core piece is a circle of friends or fans.

• FriendFeed aggregates all your feeds from blogs, photo share, video share, review share - any site that feeds your participation via RSS. This becomes an RSS feed.
• FriendFeed aggregates all you friends feeds into an RSS feed.
• Your feed or your friends' feed can be installed as a panel on Facebook.
• Recently, FriendFeed added commenting on incoming articles. Further, their is a beta real time feed.

Essentially, FriendFeed has morphed into a real time, multi-subject chat room. Unlike traditional chat where conversations become meaningless and off-topic, the subject is triggered by the postings from a friend. Comments show reactions and amendments to the posted matter. Thus, comments stay on-topic.

It's too early to forecast the future of FriendFeed. A-listers, i.e. top bloggers, love their service. The danger is that larger networks could deploy similar features to eliminate the need. Friendfeed's challenge is to build loyalty and keep the fans at Friendfeed, rather than just a pipe for distribution of information.

Twitter, Myspace, Instant Messaging, Hola-Hoop

Many web features have become hola-hoops like chat rooms, instant messaging, forums, or email groups. Where the conversations could not stay on topic or change with conversation changes, these rooms, groups, and forums have grown and died. 

Today, IM is used by high schoolers to talk about homework. Forums and email groups with niche topics that are still relevant have survived. This includes coding forums. Others that could not sustain the conversation have disappeared.

Twitter extends conversations with SMS postings and reports. They report huge flows that have frequently broken their servers. More challenging than server reliability, Twitter needs to convert idle chatter into relevant conversations. If not, Twitter becomes the next hola-hoop.

Myspace is the largest social network in the US. Much of their traffic is based on social chit-chat, spam, and sex solicitation. Their recent growth is essentially flat. Myspace needs to convert their social network into targeted conversations.

Social network, itself, is not a hola-hoop since it displaces the pain to track email addresses. In a social network, each member updates their own. Connections automatically have updated addresses and phone numbers. This decentralized approach is more efficient than contact lists maintained by each owner.

Conclusion

These are a few of the social media sites on the Internet. Hundreds more have interesting communities and conversations. 

Websites are not the same. Social media marketers need to learn each site's etiquette and methods. Effective operators know what works with each social network. It's a dynamic task that changes day-by-day.

Share your knowledge of a community and its etiquette in the comments.

Lead Generation, Direct Mail, eMail, Word-of-Mouth, Buzz Marketing, Social Media Compared

Much has been written about social media, conversational marketing, buzz marketing, and shared networks. Let's compare social media to direct mail, email marketing, word-of-mouth, referral marketing, lead generation, coupons, and other traditional marketing.

Let's simplify.

What is Social Media?

Wikipedia defines social media as:

Social media are primarily Internet-based tools for sharing and discussing information among human beings. The term most often refers to activities that integrate technology, social interaction, and the construction of words, pictures, videos and audio. This interaction, and the manner in which information is presented, depends on the varied perspectives and "building" of shared meaning among communities, as people share their stories and experiences.

Huh!

Let's try English.

Social media websites enable sharing - Youtube for video; FlickR for photos; Blogger for blogs; Facebook, LinkedIn, and MySpace for friends; Digg, Stumbleupon for recommendations; Yelp for reviews; ... the list goes on with hundreds of sites.

Many support fan-bases, friend circles, or other viral marketing tools that become distribution channels for your marketing messages.

Over one billion people access the Internet daily. More time is spent on social media websites than email, search, and other Internet uses combined.

It's hot!

What Businesses Want

What's the relevancy of social media? How do we integrate social media with business?

Any business wants reach, brand recognition, and mindshare that generates more orders. If you can reach 100,000 customers, and have a recognized product or service - then, each time you reach the customer with a message, they are more likely to respond. These orders can be online or offline through retail.

Reach, recognition, and mindshare lead to results. It's simple.

Traditional Marketing

Traditionally, businesses gather addresses or email addresses and send ; or pay for flyers, coupons, or ads through publishers who have the mailing addresses. These have been high cost, high friction activities.

• A stamp costs $0.39 and is rising. Total mailing budgets cost $2.00 plus and rising.
• Effectiveness of direct mail is declining. Few open unsolicited mail.

eMail collection and management is high friction, high decay, and dropping in effectiveness.

• Users are reluctant to register and give you an email address. Registration is high friction.
• eMail addresses decay 20% per year. An unmanaged list decays to uselessness in two years.
• Spam blockers prevent bulk mailings - most bulk email don't arrive.
• eMail formatting is limited and complex. No flash, video, or interactive component.
• Few people read the email - deleting without reading.

Not surprisingly, return on investment (ROI) on a direct mail campaign has dropped to insignificance.

Social Media - the Low Friction Approach

Effective use of social media replaces the list building, message sending, and mindshare maintenance functions. A blog is your media archive - with multi-media postings and an RSS subscription mechanism. Your presence at social networks like Youtube, Facebook, or LinkedIn are like magazine racks at popular cafes to reach fans, friends, and interested parties.

• Readers discover you or your products by friending or subscribing. Compared to registration or supplying an email address - these actions reduce the friction to join to clicks - no typing, easy decisions, less commitment.
• Lists are decentralized. Each member maintains their own current address. The connections - whether a friend or a subscription - are maintained automatically. The list stays fresh.
• The lists scale - to millions. With addresses, the cost to mail a million is prohibitive - not scalable. With emails, blocking of bulk mail stops scalability. (ed: Obama leveraged his ad budget with social media to impact 4 million voters per month.)

Like traditional media, the likelihood that a member would see/read a social message is low. However, social media compensates with:

• Scale. Your lists sum to millions of connections.
• Frequency. You can publish 1, 2, ... 10 messages a day - thus increasing the chance that a fan would see your message.
• Format. The message can be video, interactive, musical, or otherwise capture the attention of a fan.

Social Media's Impact on the ROI

The bottomline measures results relative to costs.

Although the creative costs can be the same as traditional marketing, the distribution costs is zero dollars. This means you can send more messages, test messages, and actively manage the message flow with very small investments.

Returns are measurable at each step in the sales funnel.

• Cost per action advertising, such as Google CPC or tEarn CPV, reduces the cost to bring a suspect to your website or blog.
• Low friction capture of prospects increase the likelihood for first stage engagement.
• Frequency of contact builds recognition and mindshare.
• Social referrals from existing customers among your social networks accelerate decisions by prospects to buy.
• Online convenience leads to quicker purchases.

With lower investment and higher returns, social media improves ROI. Most importantly, the solution scales from a few customers to millions.

Conclusion

What is social media? It's an efficient replacement for direct mail marketing.

Every business needs to learn. What do you need?

Buy Low, Sell High - With Bad Economy, Is it Time to Buy?

Savvy investors know to buy low, sell high. Is it the right time to buy?

What  are the Big Problems

Wall Street has tanked. Global markets have followed. Obama and McCain openly debate our economic woes, busy shifting blame to the other party. Venture capitalists are telling their portfolio to cut back. Chicken little pundits squawk even louder.

Our leaders tell us that we are failing. 

Sad.

As a macroeconomist who has built input-output models to analyze the economy, let's take a look at the immediate sector issues.

• The financial crisis is mired in underwater mortgages. As an economist, I have no interest to shift blame. Rising property values solve the problem. The $700, $800 billion bailout provides the short-term cushion for financial stability. Inflation and the low value of the dollar compared to foreign dollars drive investment into real properties like gold, real estate, and capital assets. These investments come from US and global sources. Foreign goverments have joined the effort to provide liquidity. No nation has the interest to see the global problem get worse.
• Oil prices are high, but declining. Products that depend on gasoline for transport have not dropped prices. Thus, businesses that have not suffered volume drops gain margin relieve. Savvy businesses should pass the savings to consumers to gain share. This would be a form of the buy low, sell higher volume strategy. For example, expect Apple to introduce a low price Mac laptop to gain share.
• Both political candidates have made energy independence a high priority issue for national security, green environment, and growth stimulus. 
• Statistical reports show lower, but steady growth in income and consumption. Aside from driving less, people have not changed their spending habits.

Lack of Leadership

So, what's the real problem? 

Leadership vacuum.

The timing of the economic problems, a lame-duck president, and an election that is four weeks away has created a vacuum of leadership. The fallout impacts both national and global markets. 

We agreed to a bailout, but voters don't trust that Washington has made a choice that is in the best interest of the country. During the debates, our leaders acknowledge the many problems. In fact, they hype the problem to shift blame - hoping to get elected. We have real issues, yet the candidates argue over the details where few understand the tradeoffs. Neither candidate can convince the majority of independents that their solution solves the problem. Thus, we have stalemate for a few more weeks.

The democratic process, at a time of economic pressure, disturbs the stability needed for people to keep their eyes on their business and maintain growth. 

What's the Solution

Fortunately, the election debate ends soon. Once we have a winner, the public laundering of economic woes will end. The leadership vacuum ends; and the promise of a new leader cheers on the working folks.

Of course, politicians will continue to argue details and shift blame - but the economy will be allowed to set its own course for recovery. 

Buy Low, Sell High

We've told that things are bad. Have we hit bottom? Is it time to buy? 

Input-output analysis tells us to choose our markets. Choosing wisely, it is time to buy.

For those in the Internet-related, technology industries, take a look at the basics.

• Web use continues to grow. High energy costs encourage more virtual travel.
• Smartphones continue to grow. Again, high energy costs encourage phone calls over face-to-face meetings. Devices that enable browsing, messaging, and talking like the iPhone become indispensible tools for business productivity. 
• Consumer electronic devices continue to drop in price while gaining more function.
• Online ads continue to grow.

What about your sector? 

Is it time to buy?

World Markets Smashed, Massive New Bailout Talks

from Silicon Alley Insider by Henry Blodget

From Clusterstock: Huge new bailout plans may guarantee all bank deposits and interbank lending, recapitalize banks, and, possibly, head off global economic catastrophe. They may also put western governments in serious financial trouble.

Sequoia Capital’s 56 Slide Presentation Of Doom

from TechCrunch by Michael Arrington

CEO_ALL_HANDS_10-7-08_FINAL - Get more Business Documents

We were able to track down the presentation that Sequoia Capital gave to its portfolio company CEO’s earlier this week (and so did VentureBeat). It’s a long, 56 slide Powerpoint message of doom and gloom in Silicon Valley that we covered yesterday along with an email that angel investor Ron Conway sent to his 130 active portfolio companies.

The final text slide reads “Get Real or Go Home.”

Benchmark Capital jumped on the band wagon today with their own email to portfolio companies. The messages are all similar - companies need to stay ahead of the curve as much as possible. Cut costs now, and raise capital if you can. If there’s someone out there willing to buy you, do it. Etc.

Of course all this negativity helps create the very downturn that venture capitalists are warning their companies to defend themselves against, perpetuating a sort of vicious cycle downward. But that’s ok, sometimes the hedge needs to be pruned. And this is what makes Silicon Valley its ugly, beautiful self.

Why This Slowdown Is An Opportunity

by David

The news is full of doom and gloom these days and it is, quite frankly, pissing me off. The problems in the economy are real. People are feeling it. However, the problem is that people might start to feel as if it is all outside their control.

It isn’t.

Now is the time that people should be looking into new opportunities. And the Internet is perhaps the best platform out there right now for the average person to make a supplemental or even a full-time income. I’ve been making my living online for years. And I’ve seen people get started after me who are now doing much better than I am. The Internet is a truly open medium with pretty much no barriers to entry. Take it from me - ANYBODY can make money on the Internet. All it takes is a drive to do so...

Look Who's On Top for 'Economics of Advertising'

Ed: After 8 months and 1,000 posts extracted from 10,000 articles, guess who is number one on the new Blog Search from Google?

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Related Blogs:

New Economics of Advertising - Simplify the technologies behind the new economics of buying and selling advertising. The New Economics of Advertising - Simplify the technologies for buying and selling advertising. Clickety Clack: Online Advertising Economics - My experience in online advertising and venture capital

"Pre-emptive Rounds"

6 hours ago by effective cpms   Looks like they're battening down the hatches: Social-network apphaus Gigya has raised $11 million in a Series C funding round led by DAG Ventures. President and co-founder Rooly Eliezerov called it a "pre-emptive round" in a release ... Clickety Clack: Online Advertising Economics - http://ecpm.typepad.com/clickety_clack/ [ More results from Clickety Clack: Online Advertising Economics ]

New York Computer Science and Economics Day (NYCE Day), Oct 3 2008

7 hours ago by joly   The revenue generated by advertising provides incentives for online publishers to create high-quality content. The problem of allocating advertisements to online page views is extraordinarily complex. On search engines, millions of ... isoc-ny.org - http://www.isoc-ny.org

TechCrunch50 and Demo 72

9 Sep 2008 by Editor   Burt (CB) — Collects user data to tailor individual advertising campaigns and target users more effectively; Adgregate Markets (CB) — Brings online stores to consumers through a display ad that is a fully transactional widget ... New Economics of Advertising - http://adecon101.blogspot.com/ - References [ More results from New Economics of Advertising ]

Google Launches Its Own Memetracker

Google has just launched a new homepage for its blog search that bears a strong resemblance to Techmeme, Memeorandum and their “memetracker” counterparts. The site displays a listing of the top stories from across a variety of topics including business, politics, technology, and entertainment.

Memetrackers identify emerging trends on the web, especially across blogs. They are often the best way to learn about breaking news stories, as they can automatically monitor hundreds (or more) news sources at once. Major news outlets and user-submitted content sites like Digg often trail memetrackers by days...