Unify Behind Obama - Reduce Perceived Risk - Accelerate Growth

Despite the negative economy, I'm been optimistic about the trends. Here's why.

What's the Problem?

What caused the dominos of the downturn in 2008.

• Rapid rise of oil prices
• Upsetting over-leveraged financial markets
• Incompetent president
• Problems accelerated by the contentious election, zealous pundits, and chicken-little forecasters
• Viral web that instantly spreads the word among billions
• Loss of confidence
• High perceived risks

What's Happened?

• Oil prices declined rapidly, a first in economic history
• Interest rates reversing, following admission by the Fed that they made the wrong call on inflation
• Food and product prices will follow the downward trend with a lag
• Global financial markets gaining trillions of aid
• Incompetence removed
• More stimulus coming

The remaining, primary problem is global uncertainty among businesses, consumers, and policy makers. 

The Good News

Obama is the right choice.

• He's smart, pragmatic.
• Pundits, politicians, and comedians can't attack him personally. It's politically wrong to do so.
• He has global appeal.
• We'll see more unity.

Unification reduces uncertainty and perceived risk - leading to growth and financial gains.

The global web can change the positive sentiment as quickly as it spread the negative views - much faster than newspapers in 1929, or TV and radio during other crisis. 

Bottomline

Americans agonize over the policy choices. Politicians move even slower. It's more important, today, to move in one-direction. 

What do you think?

Fear of Unknown Kills the Global Economy

As an economist, we seek cause and effect, measure the impact from history, and forecast the future. The current recession is unique - preventing proper analysis. That has not stopped 'chicken-little' pundits from forecasting disaster; or brave entrepreneurs from rousing the troops.

What is the problem? What would 'House MD' conclude? 

Identifying the Causes of Economic Pain

Bush f*cked up. That's the conventional wisdom. 

We see the pain.

• Housing prices have declined. Many are insolvent. 
• IRA's are melting - personal, business, government pots.
• Over-leveraged banks, publishers, and auto makers are under water - drowning.
• Financial markets have tightened - no money available.

These are real problems, but they are the results, not the cause.

Unfortunately, governments attack the wrong problems - pressured by special interest groups. Huge loans prop failing businesses. 

Should we identify the cause first?

Economic Failings

The popular TV show, 'House MD', chronicles the diagnosis of complex diseases. Problems trigger new problems. Unrelated symptoms confuse even the best experts. 

Our problems have been triggered by dependence on scarce oil. Prices rose too quickly, creating economic dislocations. It's chaos. 

Consider if prices had stayed stable. The global economy would continue to grow, real estate values would stay high, over-leveraged properties would be less over leveraged, and other symptomatic problems would not have occurred. Thus, no chaos.

Now that oil prices have declined, shouldn't the problem go away?

• The stimulus from gasoline savings is $3,000 per household.
• The food price savings can be another $3,000 per household.
• The fed no longer fears inflation and has shifted to a low-interest policy.
• Global governments are pumping trillions to help.

These substantitive actions pump the economy, but don't address the cause.

The jerking that dramatically increased and decreased the oil price has permanently raised the risk discount. High risk increases the discount rate and reduces the value of stocks, properties, and any real asset. 

We see symptoms of the increased risk from:

• Surveys of consumer sentiment
• Threats from the Oil Cartel to cut oil supply
• Daily stock market gyrations
• Political battles with the wrong agenda
• Media pundits, more interested in audience ratings

Our fear of the unknown lowers economic values - and sustains the pain that we experience. If we control the fear, steady the ship, economic value improves. The financial meltdown ends. 

What We Need from the Obama Team

How do we solve these problems? It's complex. We can only stay the goals.

• Eliminate or control dependence on oil.
• Keep the ship steady. Unfortunately, free speech allows 'chicken-little' pundits to gain headlines.
• Clear goals for growth.

Americans have always had that strong entrepreneurial vision. Continued innovation improves productivity, growth, and more jobs. Our leadership guides global growth.

We need a plan that points us toward the long-term solution with persistent, consistent, positive leadership.

What do you think?

---

Fear Kills Businesses, Dead

from TechCrunch by Brian Solis

It’s official. We’re in a recession. Recessions naturally inject fear and panic, which is only heightened by every discussion of market losses, layoffs, bailouts, and somber predictions. We’re only human after all; of course everything affects us personally and emotionally.

Fear is not a catalyst for productivity however.

With valuable advice pouring in from concerned and sympathetic entrepreneurs and proven leaders, businesses are indeed responding quickly to make decisions that equate to a secure and prosperous future—hopefully.

This constructive advice has helped businesses focus and weigh difficult decisions sooner than they might have without it.

However, over time, productive guidance has mutated into a glut of negative forecasts and grim predictions that pillage precious and vital airtime from contributing to the resolution of our financial predicament. Simply said, fear, and the dissemination of distress, slowly erodes hope, vision, and ambition, ultimately killing businesses instead of guiding them.

Fear inspires desperate actions. Hope (combined with clarity and inventiveness galvanizes action and engenders opportunities.

Opportunity vs. Emotion

These are emotionally charged times which only fuel emotionally-driven decisions. Unfortunately, the advice shared from many experts now and in the past is subjected to both literal and open interpretation, and thus guiding or misguiding the next steps of established businesses and emerging startups.

Don’t worry about getting ahead, instead, just survive…Cutting deeper and quicker is the formula to survive. - Sequoia Capital

There’s a distinct difference between mere survival and succeeding in real world business.  Many companies may unwittingly lock themselves in an isolated panic room instead of taking strategic steps to evolve and grow the business opportunity that exists today.

General advice is just that, general. One prevailing set of strategies and recommendations doesn’t apply to all.

In a conversation with veteran CEO and financier Steve Larsen, currently co-founder of Krugle, he advises:

Of course, don’t be stupid. Have enough cash to run your business, but I think the doom and gloom crowd are getting too much airtime. Look for opportunities. Difficult times are when they’ll most likely occur. When we’re at ‘steady state’ and things are normal, good opportunities are much harder to find with GREAT opportunities nearly impossible. It is during periods of tumult and transition when you can spot things that lead to the greatest returns—if you are alert. So be alert.

In every recession, abundant opportunities are inherently rife. To simply believe that this is a generic time to step off of the playing field to warm benches or take a seat in the spectator bleachers in the hopes of emerging once again to readily have a shot at winning the game is illogical. Businesses, and customers, do not stop making decisions—they’re just more discerning during volatile economic climates. But make no mistake, if you choose to stop vying for customer attention, the world will move ahead without you.

This is your time to vault in front of your competition, to earn rapid and sweeping visibility, for a fraction of the time and money that was required to excel during the “good days.”

Your rivals are retreating right now, so what are you going to do about it?

Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu advised in The Art of War:

When weak, feign strength…Attack him [your enemy] where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

Whoever inspires you, remember, tomorrow’s leaders are born, tested, and proven, today. This is your moment.

Development vs. Revenue Generation

As a startup, you are now, officially, on your own. You can’t count on your VCs saving you or some magical offer from Yahoo or Google showing up to bail you out. — Jason Calacanis

...

Note: Economists React: ‘Bursting of Petroleum Bubble’ Takes Inflation Down

Ed: Blind men and the elephant. Like the 1970's, when the price of oil first skyrocketed, pundits forecasted without prior experience. Here we go again. 

Economists React: ‘Bursting of Petroleum Bubble’ Takes Inflation Down

from WSJ.com: Real Time Economics

Economists and others weigh in on the record decline in consumer prices.

The composition of the report supports the interpretation that core inflation is slowing more quickly than we had anticipated. There are no obvious “outliers”, large moves in volatile components that are likely to be reversed next month. The closest to that are the large declines in the lodging away from home category, but those likely reflect real developments in the hotel sector where anecdotal evidence is of a sharp drop in demand. Vehicle price declines also contribute, but again the weakness of demand provides a ready explanation. And the rental components, which are a large share of the CPI, were on the high side (energy prices are a likely culprit as a correction for utilities included in rent tends to move in the opposite direction). Elsewhere, the declines appear fairly widely dispersed, consistent with an overall slowing. –Goldman Sachs

It is too soon to expect the strong dollar or the drop in commodity prices to push core inflation lower; this is all about demand compression squeezing margins. The pressure will likely intensify, and core inflation could now fall quite quickly. Headline now at 1.1% year-to-year; expect dead zero in December. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

The core was restrained by further decreases in new and used cars along with declines in hotel rates and airfares. Also, the personal care category showed some unusual softness due mainly to a bizarre plunge in the financial services subsector. Prices for gasoline and other energy-related items have experienced further declines in recent weeks, so we should see another drop in the headline CPI for December. However, the pace of decrease in coming months is unlikely to be as severe as that seen in November. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley

The 0.2% decline in core goods prices might indicate that the rapid slowing in core inflation is simply pass-through of declining commodity prices. However, core services inflation, which usually runs about 0.2-0.3% higher than core goods inflation, slowed to a modest 0.1% pace, suggesting that the slowing in inflation is becoming more widespread and likely also owes to the declining levels of resource utilization. With the three-month annualized run rate on core CPI inflation now only 0.4%, we would anticipate that the prospect for deflation is being discussed as a very real possibility at today’s FOMC meeting. –Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan Chase

We do not think that the decline in the CPI should be confused with a monetary deflation. The Fed has eased aggressively and has seen its balance sheet explode since the end of August. In our judgment, the monetary conditions for a sustained deflation are absent. However, Helicopter Ben is likely to be concerned about deflation and the Fed is likely to continue aggressive actions to expand its balance sheet over the coming months (given weakness in housing, we still believe that expansion will be through the purchase of mortgage-related assets rather than Treasuries). –RDQ Economics

The bursting of the petroleum bubble is unwinding the price pressures that had built up during the long run up in costs. That is good news for the consumer who now can pocket the difference. While households may not go out and party with the money, they do seem to be using it to clean up the mess on their balance sheets. When the rebound hits, households should be better prepared to start spending again. We could see a large increase in consumption at that point, especially if, as expected, confidence will surge as well. –Naroff Economic Advisors

Compiled by Phil Izzo

Obama Says Internet Key to Economic Recovery at Change.gov

Obama Says Internet Key to Economic Recovery

This morning, after President-Elect Obama laid out the key parts of his economic recovery plan during his weekly address, he turned to the Internet and told the country that he intends to "renew our information superhighway."

"It is unacceptable that the United States ranks 15th in the world in broadband adoption. Here, in the country that invented the Internet, every child should have the chance to get online, and they'll get that chance when I'm President - because that's how we'll strengthen America's competitiveness in the world," he said.

Last month, we highlighted Obama's use of the Web; his ability to embrace technology and connect with his audience, and from what we've seen to date, he hasn't disappointed.

Within 24 hours of winning the historic election, Obama's transition team launched Change.gov so that the public could follow the setting up of the Obama administration. Ten days later, Obama announced he would bring the President's weekly "fireside chat" into the 21st century by sharing it on YouTube; the very next day we saw the weekly Democratic address released on the Web for the first time.

Two weeks ago, we saw Change.gov announce support for OpenID, and more recently add a Creative Commons license.

Today's pledge to connect American libraries, schools and hospitals to the Internet once again confirms Obama's commitment to technology.

"Because to help our children compete in a 21st century economy, we need to send them to 21st century schools," he said. He also wants to ensure every doctor and every hospital in the country is using cutting edge technology in an attempt to cut red tape, prevent medical mistakes, and help cut costs.

Clearly, the President-elect is not shying away from technology, and here at ReadWriteWeb we hope the examples he has set so far continue post Inauguration Day.

Chicken Little Pundits - Paralysis Analysis

Ed: Wall Street analysts have too much idle time - not enough analysis. Despite the massive effort and pretty charts, the analysis shows the slow market recovery after a drastic drop. 

Duh!

This is a classic, single variate, cross-sectional analysis of 3 data points in time - thin on analysis, biased on the selection of time series, and meaningless. Using this trivial thinking, you can select hundreds of data points to prove fast recovery after a market drop. 

The analysts have a 1 in 3 chances of being correct. Markets go up, down, or stay the same. Their chance of being correct of being correct is the same as flipping a three-sided coin.

View	How Oil Prices Impact the Cost of Bottled Water

View	Watch the Grocery Prices - Economic Recovery in Place?

Oil prices have climbed and dropped dramatically. This is a single data point with no comparables in history. In 1972, the MIT, Wharton, Chase, UCLA, and Lionel D. Edie macroeconomic models could not predict the impact of increased oil prices. 

In 2008, we can't predict current events using irrelevant comparables. 

Nastiest Bear Markets In History: How Does Ours Compare?

Henry Blodget | Nov 30, 08 9:42 PM

Doug Short (via Barry Ritholtz) offers this interesting chart of four nasty 20th Century bear markets: 1929, Nikkei, NASDAQ, and our current S&P 500. As the chart shows, we're right on track for... well, we're right on track for any of the scenarios, as well as for a recovery.  But regardless of how this one ends, we're off to a historically horrific start.

And here's another good one, showing a shorter time span. Note that we have just caught up with the pace of the 1929 crash. (It was quicker early on, but the last three months have made up for lost ground).

What do you think?

Ed: Confusing picture of Black Friday. Stock market drops on Monday, but 1929 chicken-little predictions have been plucked, roasted, and eaten.

Holiday Online Retail Traffic: Walmart And Amazon Duked It Out

According to Hitwise, U.S. visit numbers across all tracked retail categories declined for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday 2008, with the exception of online-only shopping websites. Among the top 500 Retail sites, Walmart was the top visited on Thanksgiving Day, but Amazon.com took over as top visited Retail site on Black Friday.

Overall, the numbers showed an expected but sharp decline: the percentage of U.S. visits was down 11% on Thanksgiving Day in 2008 compared to last year, and U.S. traffic on Black Friday was down 5%. But online-only (not brick-and-mortar) stores, of which there are 100 in the list of 500 top retail websites, had a pretty good run: the percentage of U.S visits to those shot up 11% on Thanksgiving Day, and went up 10% on Black Friday compared to 2007.

Still according to the Hitwise report, the top visited retail website on Thanksgiving Day was Walmart.com, receiving 13.72% of U.S. visits, while Amazon.com was the second most visited with 9.56% of visits. BestBuy.com came in third with 6.05%.

Amazon.com took over the lead on Black Friday, receiving 11.06% of U.S. visits among the top 500 retail websites. Walmart.com was the second most visited with 9.88% of visits followed by Target.com with 4.62%.

Apple Black Friday Mac Sales 'Better Than Expected': Analyst (AAPL)

Dan Frommer | December 1, 2008 10:20 AM

Apple (AAPL) didn't offer deep discounts on its Macs or iPods during last week's "Black Friday" sale, and it didn't offer any discount on iPhones. But Mac sales were "better than expected," Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says in a note today, and iPhone sales were "as expected."

Munster's team spent 10 hours counting Mac and iPhone sales in five Apple stores last Friday. They calculated:

• Mac sales averaged 13 per hour, up from 2 per hour in early November.
• iPhone sales averaged 3.4 per hour, up from 1.3 per hour in early November. Friday's iPhone sales numbers are "likely understated" because they missed some iPhone gift card sales.

Black Friday Weekend

CTV.ca

Black Friday sales chalk up 3% gain from last year MarketWatch - 36 minutes ago By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Strong discounts brought US consumers to the stores on "Black Friday" -- the traditional first day ... US ‘Black Friday’ Sales Rise 3%, ShopperTrak Says (Update2) Bloomberg Early data shows strong Black Friday The Associated Press US Black Friday retail sales rise 3%, says ShopperTrak RTT News Consumer Affairs - Xinhua

CTV.ca

Shop therapy! Black Friday sales up 3% New York Daily News, NY - 8 hours ago BY ELIZABETH LAZAROWITZ, JOE GOULD AND TINA MOORE New Yorkers hit the stores for a second round of bargain-hunting Saturday as analysts said deep Black ... Rain doesn't deter Black Friday shoppers in Dallas-Fort Worth Dallas Morning News Black Friday sales brighten southern New Jersey stores' hopes for ... Press of Atlantic City Local Black Friday sales appear robust Daily Comet South Bend Tribune (subscription) - Chattanooga Times Free Press all 990 news articles »

ABC News

Missed Black Friday? Cyber Monday coming Detroit Free Press, United States - 12 hours ago BY KELLY KOZLOWSKI • FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER • November 29, 2008 Black Friday came and went, and with it, the sales, coupons and doorbuster deals. ... Retailers Get A Boost On Black Friday KFOXtv.com Online retailers look to catch Friday's leftover shoppers MyWestTexas.com Sleep in Friday? Try Net on Monday St. Cloud Times I4U - al.com

Hopes for Bargains Dim on 'Black Friday' Washington Post, United States - 9 hours ago By Jenna Johnson This year's economic crisis made the hunt for Black Friday bargains even more frenetic for many Southern Maryland residents. ... Shoppers turn out on Black Friday Baltimore Sun CBS4.COM Is Your Source For Black Friday Shopping CBS 4

Sydney Morning Herald

After Black Friday death, shoppers back at Wal-Mart Newsday, NY - 22 hours ago ... there were no outward signs Saturday at the Valley Stream Wal-Mart of the chaos that turned this year's Black Friday into a day of death and mayhem. ... Video: Charges Possible in Black Friday Wal-Mart Death AssociatedPress Black Friday turns tragic for Wal-Mart CNNMoney.com Wal-Mart worker trampled to death by frenzied Black Friday shoppers Seattle Times Delaware County Daily Times - MarketWatch

PriceGrabber.com(R) Releases 2008 Black Friday Online Shopping ... MarketWatch - 17 hours ago "Prior to the Black Friday weekend, 71 percent of shoppers intended to spend less money this holiday season compared to last year and 66 percent planned to ... Low Prices Draw SoCal Shoppers NBC Los Angeles all 17 news articles »

Sify

Did you shop on Black Friday? Redlands Daily Facts, CA - 6 hours ago By KEVIN TRUDGEON But while the tradition of Black Friday centers around holiday shopping and bargain hunting, there have been incidents of violence. ... Video: Money Minute: Black Friday, OPEC, Yahoo AssociatedPress Black Friday takes a hit from the economy Boston Globe Rookie, veteran shoppers hit stores on Black Friday Newsday Atlanta Journal Constitution - CNNMoney.com

ABC News

Surprised? Black Friday sales up in 2008 NECN, MA - 15 hours ago Preliminary figures show consumers spent 3-percent more on Black Friday than last year, to the tune of $10.6 billion dollars. But now that Black Friday is ... Holiday shoppers show caution on this year's Black Friday Arizona Republic Shoppers Search For Deals During Black Friday MyNC.com Borderland shoppers out in full-force for 'Black Friday' KVIA KCCI.com - KBMT ABC 12

Reuters

Black Friday Web sales jump Reuters - 16 hours ago CHICAGO (Reuters) - Online sales jumped on Black Friday as consumers searched for electronics such as the Wii video game console and Apple's iPhone and iPod ... eBay Companies See Black Friday Shoppers Clicking for Great Deals WELT ONLINE Black Friday online sales - Cyber Monday comes early TECH.BLORGE.com   EBAY - AMZN - AAPL

Bailout, Black Friday lift Wall Street for the week Newsday, NY - 7 hours ago Investors are examining the prospects for the holiday shopping period, which began in earnestFriday. Wall Street expects retailers will suffer as consumers ...

Average US gasoline price falls below $2/gallon

Ed: As predicted, good news in time for the holidays. Bad news is that "chicken-little" pundits continue to misconnect cause and effect. 

View	Warren Buffett: Buy Stocks! Cash Is Trash!

View	Watch the Grocery Prices - Economic Recovery in Place?

WCBD

Gas Prices To Further Drop For Holidays NewsOXY, FL - 7 hours ago By Rob Adams The price of gas has dropped for 65 consecutive days. Travelers could see a further drop in gas prices for the holidays. ... Holiday travel expected to drop in ND Grand Forks Herald Drop in gas prices could spur more holiday travel Bizjournals.com Gas prices drop in time for holiday travel WBXH WWSB ABC 7 - Delmarva Daily Times

The Money Times

Gas prices continue to drop WHOI, IL - 39 minutes ago By Ashley McNamee PEORIA, IL -- Gas prices across the country continue plunge and things are no different in the heart of Illinois. The national average for ... Upstate gas prices drop 14 cents in the past week Greenville News AAA: Fastest gasoline drop in 50 years 9NEWS.com As fuel prices drop, schools review budgets Litchfield Enquirer Women on the Web - San Francisco Chronicle

Nonprofit seeks donations, even as gas prices drop Examiner.com - Nov 22, 2008 Nov 22, 2008 10:56 AM (7 mins ago) By CATHERINE TSAI, AP DENVER (Map, News) - Lower natural gas prices will help keep heating bills down this winter, ...

Oil Price Falls Below $50 on Weak Consumption New York Times, United States - Nov 20, 2008 The drop in prices could not have come soon enough for consumers. Gasoline prices are down about half since July, easing some inflationary pressures. ... Crude Oil Tumbles to Lowest Since May 2005 as Consumption Drops Bloomberg Reducing the budget deficit CNNMoney.com MARKET WATCH: Lower temperatures boost natural gas prices Oil & Gas Journal

State-by-State Polls Compared to Economic Indicators

Ed: WSJ reports cross-sectional analysis correlating election polls with jobless rates, income growth, and housing prices. This again illustrates the temporal lag between current election preferences and Q2 pain from two of the economic stats - data inefficiencies that lead to wrong conclusions.

Even though income growth lags - cost of gasoline, food, and services will be declining soon. Real purchasing power improves.

View	Watch the Grocery Prices - Economic Recovery in Place?

Housing reflects real property. International bailouts and once consumer confidence recovers- these factors lead to improved value for real property like housing, gold, and capital assets. 

Chicken little pundits report past events. Savvy investors look to the future.

Unfortunately, it's too late for McCain.

State-by-State Polls Compared to Economic Indicators

from WSJ.com: Real Time Economics

Tip O’Neill once declared that “all politics is local.” The economy has become the central issue in the 2008 presidential campaign, but not all states are feeling the downturn equally. The following chart illustrates the economic differences among the states and how it might be affecting voters’ preferences.

The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows voters’ top concern in the coming election is the economy, and 49% of respondents said Sen. Barack Obama would do a better job fixing the economy, compared to 28% who said Sen. John McCain would do better.

The chart, which uses polling data from political Web site Real Clear Politics, tracks three key indicators of voter sentiment about the economy. One is the unemployment rate in the individual states for September, the most recent month for which data are available. Job losses on a national scale have been escalating this year, with the unemployment rate for the nation reaching 6.1%. However, on a state level the rate varies from a low of 3.2% in South Dakota to a high of 8.8% in Rhode Island.

Personal income can also affect voter psychology. The numbers in the chart represent the income growth from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2008, the most recent period for which data are available. During that the consumer price index across the nation was running at about 5%. To keep pace with inflation, income has to rise at the same rate.

The decline in home prices also has been a top issue on voters’ minds. The data in the chart are from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight house price index for the second quarter, the most recent period for which data are available. The Ofheo index (renamed the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index) only tracks mortgages backed by Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac. Some economists prefer the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which shows a steeper decline in prices from 2007 to 2008, but that measure doesn’t break down its data by state. The most recent data from Case-Shiller can be found here.

Sen. Obama enjoys a lead in all but two of the states that have seen a decline in house prices according to Ofheo index, including four states that went to President Bush in the 2004 election. The two states in which Sen. McCain leads in polling? His home state of Arizona and Alaska, the home state of his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin. –Phil Izzo

Election and Economy

State	2008 Polls	2004 Result	Home-Price Change	Unemployment Rate	Change in personal income
Alabama	McCain +23.3	Bush +25.7	3.13	5.3	6.10
Alaska	McCain +15.3	Bush +25.6	-0.18	6.8	5.08
Arizona	McCain +04.4	Bush +10.5	-9.18	5.9	4.62
Arkansas	McCain +12.0	Bush +09.7	1.04	4.9	6.34
California	Obama +24.0	Kerry +09.9	-15.8	7.7	4.29
Colorado	Obama +06.6	Bush +04.7	1.82	5.2	5.89
Connecticut	Obama +19.3	Kerry +10.3	-1.44	6.1	3.76
Delaware	Obama +21.0	Kerry +07.6	-1.25	4.8	4.36
Florida	Obama +03.5	Bush +05.0	-12.41	6.6	4.28
Georgia	McCain +04.0	Bush +16.6	1.11	6.5	5.30
Hawaii	Obama +41	Kerry +08.8	-2.88	4.5	5.71
Idaho	McCain +39	Bush +38.1	1.18	5	3.98
Illinois	Obama +23.5	Kerry +10.4	-0.37	6.9	5.23
Indiana	McCain +01.7	Bush +20.7	1.77	6.2	4.72
Iowa	Obama +11.0	Bush +0.7	1.83	4.2	5.75
Kansas	McCain +21	Bush +26	1.26	4.8	5.01
Kentucky	McCain +13.7	Bush +19.9	3.05	7.1	5.01
Louisiana	McCain +16	Bush +14.5	2.68	5.2	3.79
Maine	Obama +16.2	Kerry +09.0	2.2	5.6	4.69
Maryland	Obama +23	Kerry +13	-4.02	4.6	4.31
Massachusetts	Obama +21.3	Kerry +25.1	-2.92	5.3	5.49
Michigan	Obama +14.7	Kerry +03.4	-4.66	8.7	3.45
Minnesota	Obama +13.0	Kerry +03.5	-2.22	5.9	4.77
Mississippi	McCain +10.4	Bush +19.6	3.02	7.8	5.39
Missouri	McCain +0.4	Bush +07.2	0.89	6.4	5.50
Montana	McCain +03.8	Bush +20.5	3.38	4.6	6.20
Nebraska	McCain +18.7	Bush +33.2	1.42	3.5	4.56
Nevada	Obama +07.0	Bush +02.6	-14.12	7.3	5.88
New Hampshire	Obama +11.8	Kerry +01.3	-2.11	4.1	3.71
New Jersey	Obama +15.3	Kerry +06.7	-2.92	5.8	4.80
New Mexico	Obama +07.3	Bush +0.7	1.69	4	7.46
New York	Obama +29.7	Kerry +18.3	-0.81	5.8	6.27
North Carolina	Obama +02.6	Bush +12.4	3.59	7	5.46
North Dakota	McCain +14	Bush +28	3.56	3.6	13.62
Ohio	Obama +05.8	Bush +02.1	-0.28	7.2	4.16
Oklahoma	McCain +29	Bush +32	4.93	3.8	7.23
Oregon	Obama +15.2	Kerry +04.2	-0.53	6.4	5.12
Pennsylvania	Obama +09.3	Kerry +02.5	1.36	5.7	4.89
Rhode Island	Obama +22.7	Kerry +20.8	-4.85	8.8	4.15
South Carolina	McCain +10.0	Bush +17.1	3.28	7.3	5.94
South Dakota	McCain +17	Bush +21.5	3.77	3.2	7.87
Tennessee	McCain +14.0	Bush +14.3	2.66	7.2	5.63
Texas	McCain +13.0	Bush +22.9	3.55	5.1	7.94
Utah	McCain +32	Bush +45.5	1.87	3.5	4.44
Vermont	Obama +24	Kerry +20.1	1.6	5.2	4.67
Virginia	Obama +06.5	Bush +08.2	-2.6	4.3	4.75
Washington	Obama +17.0	Kerry +08.2	0.56	5.8	5.71
West Virginia	McCain +08.0	Bush +12.9	3.44	4.5	5.92
Wisconsin	Obama +11.7	Kerry +0.4	1.04	5	4.09
Wyoming	McCain +19	Bush +40	4.36	3.3	7.98

Source: Real Clear Politics, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Notes: Home price data based on change from second quarter 2007 to second quarter 2008; Unemployment rate as of September 2008; Personal income data based on change from second quarter 2007 to second quarter 2008