Despite the negative economy, I'm been optimistic about the trends. Here's why.
What's the Problem?
What caused the dominos of the downturn in 2008.
- Rapid rise of oil prices
- Upsetting over-leveraged financial markets
- Incompetent president
- Problems accelerated by the contentious election, zealous pundits, and chicken-little forecasters
- Viral web that instantly spreads the word among billions
- Loss of confidence
- High perceived risks
- Oil prices declined rapidly, a first in economic history
- Interest rates reversing, following admission by the Fed that they made the wrong call on inflation
- Food and product prices will follow the downward trend with a lag
- Global financial markets gaining trillions of aid
- Incompetence removed
- More stimulus coming
The remaining, primary problem is global uncertainty among businesses, consumers, and policy makers.
The Good News
Obama is the right choice.
- He's smart, pragmatic.
- Pundits, politicians, and comedians can't attack him personally. It's politically wrong to do so.
- He has global appeal.
- We'll see more unity.
Unification reduces uncertainty and perceived risk - leading to growth and financial gains.
The global web can change the positive sentiment as quickly as it spread the negative views - much faster than newspapers in 1929, or TV and radio during other crisis.
Americans agonize over the policy choices. Politicians move even slower. It's more important, today, to move in one-direction.
What do you think?